Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 2.187627 2.318523 2.456614 2.613741 2.788304 2.977145 3.198040
2025-06-15 2.011993 2.194524 2.396767 2.639629 2.926312 3.257832 3.676104
2025-06-22 1.863856 2.070207 2.306168 2.599868 2.961417 3.400141 3.986433
2025-06-29 1.748637 1.968708 2.226418 2.556204 2.975940 3.505813 4.249575
2025-07-06 1.647681 1.874555 2.145202 2.499259 2.962254 3.566337 4.451000
2025-07-13 1.603445 1.844615 2.138090 2.531338 3.061319 3.779341 4.884905
2025-07-20 1.569792 1.824465 2.140138 2.572833 3.173185 4.017492 5.386303
2025-07-27 1.540551 1.807323 2.143664 2.614598 3.286450 4.266641 5.941667
2025-08-03 1.491597 1.761952 2.107119 2.598167 3.313734 4.388031 6.303602
2025-08-10 1.446583 1.719327 2.071504 2.579847 3.335283 4.500474 6.665741
2025-08-17 1.402523 1.675885 2.032360 2.553521 3.341679 4.587543 6.993942
2025-08-24 1.362460 1.636023 1.996024 2.528640 3.347521 4.672776 7.331900
2025-08-31 1.333004 1.609780 1.977889 2.530167 3.396113 4.838091 7.872463
2025-09-07 1.313186 1.595694 1.975804 2.554975 3.483320 5.080611 8.637706
2025-09-14 1.274729 1.554681 1.933972 2.517310 3.465008 5.129139 8.972639
2025-09-21 1.237498 1.514132 1.891205 2.475915 3.437267 5.156612 9.263508
2025-09-28 1.198511 1.470004 1.841776 2.421889 3.384496 5.130814 9.415162
2025-10-05 1.187149 1.463868 1.846658 2.452329 3.478282 5.401017 10.424405
2025-10-12 1.178980 1.461781 1.857088 2.491683 3.590304 5.722902 11.706589
2025-10-19 1.171207 1.459874 1.867504 2.531271 3.705680 6.069008 13.230997
2025-10-26 1.148836 1.436411 1.844916 2.515699 3.717996 6.190941 14.060690
2025-11-02 1.127072 1.413222 1.821939 2.498333 3.725541 6.302969 14.911160
2025-11-09 1.104329 1.388036 1.795150 2.473370 3.716791 6.376009 15.650416